Bitcoin Price Prediction: What the October 2025 Bitcoin Drop Means And What to Expect for November?

For the first time in seven years, Bitcoin’s legendary “Uptober” rally failed to deliver. The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 3.6% in October 2025, closing at around $110,075 and ending a streak of consistent October gains that had fueled bullish sentiment since 2018.

Once considered a month of optimism and accumulation, October turned out to be a reality check for the AI crypto predictions markets, reminding investors that even in a trillion-dollar ecosystem, volatility still rules supreme.

But with November traditionally Bitcoin price prediction strongest month, analysts say all hope isn’t lost. Historical data shows an average 42% monthly gain in November, prompting traders to ask: could this be the month of revenge for crypto?

What caused Bitcoin’s October fall?

Bitcoin flirted with new all-time highs above $126,000, driven by optimism over growing institutional interest and hopes of a rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve. But by mid-October, the momentum reversed sharply.

$19 Billion in Liquidations Wipe Out Leverage

The turning point came on October 10–11, when a $19 billion wave of leveraged liquidations swept through crypto exchanges.

According to Coinglass data, cascading stop-losses and forced sales triggered one of the biggest liquidation events of 2025. Prices plunged from $126K to $104,782 within hours a reminder of how quickly euphoria can evaporate in crypto market news.

Trump’s 100% Tariffs Reignite the U.S.-China Trade War

Just as markets were recovering, global sentiment took another hit.

President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese technology imports and threatened to restrict software exports. The move reignited the U.S.–China trade war, rattling equity and crypto market news alike.

As risk appetite evaporated, traders sought safety in cash and gold, dumping riskier digital assets. Bitcoin price prediction, often white-label AI solutions “digital gold,” behaved instead like a high-beta tech stock plunging alongside Nasdaq futures and Asian equity markets.

The Federal Reserve’s Policy Freeze

Investors hoping for a rate cut were disappointed.

The Federal Reserve opted to delay further easing, citing uncertainty from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has disrupted key economic data releases.

That decision, combined with hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, weighed heavily on risk assets. The delay in policy support reduced liquidity expectations, historically one of Bitcoin price prediction biggest price drivers.

Adding to the pessimism, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of a potential U.S. stock-market correction within six months, prompting institutional traders to de-risk portfolios that included crypto wallet development exposure.

The Numbers Behind Bitcoin’s October 2025 Slide

Why Bitcoin Price Prediction Still Holds Long-Term Strength?

Although sentiment in the short term has shifted to bearish, the fundamentals are quite solid.

There are a variety of reasons why this downturn could be the result of a positive correction instead of the beginning of a long-term Bitcoin October 2025 decline.

The Institutional Interest remains solid

ETF flows may have decreased but they remain positive. It is believed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of several spot Bitcoin price prediction ETFs earlier in the year continues to attract mainstream investors to the group.

Corporate Adoption Grows

More businesses’ AI project ideas are using Bitcoin price prediction transactions and exposure to treasury particularly in the energy and finance which are indicating structural demand when there are adjustments.

Supply Dynamics Favor the Bulls

In an expected next Bitcoin reduction of a half expected to occur in 2028, the long-term scarcity is unaffected. Reserves for exchange are close to five-year lows. This suggests that investors are in the process of holding, not disposing of their coins.

Why November could change everything for Bitcoin?

The losses from October are still fresh, traders have turned their attention to November, which is historically the month when Bitcoin is its most profitable month..

According to Glassnode, since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 42.51% gain in November, with six of the last eight years posting positive returns.

The Bitcoin price forecast for November: Rebound or crash

• Seasonality: Historically strong month after an accumulation cycle in Q4.
• ETF Momentum: Inflows from institutions have increased when funds balance portfolios.
• Macro Tailwinds: Expected to ease U.S.-China tensions and the possibility of Fed commentary to soften by mid-November.
• Technical Configuration: If Bitcoin breaks above the resistance of $115,000 and targets $140K to $160K by the end of the year.

The Bearish View

The experts are warning that the destruction of October may last.
The rates of funding remain high and suggest the over-leveraging of bullish bets as the on-chain data of Crypto Quant indicates an increase in the flow of exchange funds typically indicative of the upcoming selling pressure. AI development companies in 2025 are expected to continue to increase.

In 2018, a similar pattern led to Bitcoin dropping 36.5% in November, right after a weak October close.

Technical Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

The current bitcoin price range between $108K to $115K is vital.
A sustained high above $115K may turn into a bullish mood, while breaking below $104K could provide a way to test sub-$100K levels.

RSI indicators remain neutral at 47, and the 50-day moving average sits around $112K — acting as near-term resistance.

Market Sentiment: Fear or Opportunity?

Crypto for fear and greed of crypto changed to “Greed (72)” from September until “Neutral (48)” in October — a sign of the shaken confidence.
Yet, whale activity and derivatives’ positioning suggests that smart money isn’t yet out of the Bitcoin market cap.

The data provided by Glassnode shows an increase in the number of addresses with 100 to 1,000 BTC, typically an indicator that blockchain trends reverse.

While funding rates remain somewhat positive suggests that traders anticipate an increase; however analysts warn that overconfidence could backfire.

Expert Opinions: What Analysts Predict for November

• Michael Lee, Bitwave Capital:
  Bitcoin could reach $125K again before mid-November, if ETF flows stabilize. The Bitcoin October 2025 decline appears to be an adjustment in leverage rather than a trend reverse.
• Sonia Patel, ChainAlpha Analytics:
  “Macroeconomic data is the wildcard. If inflation slows down, Bitcoin price prediction might outperform equities once more.
• Arjun Kumar, DeltaX Investments:
  Retail involvement has decreased in the past, which is good because it decreases fluctuations and allows whales to accumulate prior to the next stage.

Altcoin Impact and Sectoral Ripple

The weakness of Bitcoin price prediction sank into Ethereum, Solana blockchain, as well as the DeFi coins and collectively, they suffered losses of 8-12% in October.
But, AI-related tokens (like Fetch.ai and Render) did not follow the trend and showed modest gains amid the hype surrounding self-assisted AI Voice Agent technology.

If Bitcoin price prediction improves in November, analysts anticipate to see a larger rise in altcoins and Ethereum is likely to test the $4,200 level once more.

Macro Factors That Could Define Bitcoin November 2025

• U.S.-China Commerce Updates: Any break in relations could revive risk-taking.
• Federal Reserve Meeting (Nov 20): Markets anticipate a 25 bps reduction if the economic data declines.
• ETF Flows Reports: Net inflows over $1.5 B could create an upward trend.
• U.S. Jobs and CPI data: A slowing of inflation could force institutional investors back to Bitcoin price prediction.

Long-Term Outlook: Bitcoin Beyond November

Even if November’s performance isn’t the best analysts agree that Bitcoin’s fundamental growth story remains unaffected.

• Halving Narrative In 2028, the Bitcoin halving cycles may cut the annual BTC issue to below 0.5%, further enhancing the issue of scarcity.
• Worldwide Adoption Central banks throughout Asia as well as Africa continue to investigate the possibility of diversifying their reserve portfolios with Bitcoin price prediction.
• Regulation Clearness: It is believed that the Trump administration’s AI crypto prediction rules could further increase the acceptance of digital assets’ use in AI development services.

In the end, Bitcoin’s October stumble could be just a temporary shaking-out in a more long-term trend.

Conclusion

The first loss in October for Bitcoin price prediction since the end of 2018 has undoubtedly affected Bitcoin market cap confidence but not its longer-term story.
A 3.6% pullback after seven years of gains is painful — yet modest compared to previous cycles.

If the pattern of historical behavior continues and the interest of institutions rekindles, November could easily become the month that Bitcoin is reviving and push it towards the $150-$160k range. But, if macro conditions get worse, it could be a cautionary tale of excessive leverage and false optimism.